June 30, 2026 - Washington DC - A new analysis by In a new article published inpublished in The National Interest , ATFL president Ed. Gabriel analyzes the historic trilateral agreement concluded between Lebanon, Israel, and the United States.
The article provides a clear-eyed assessment of the framework, noting that while it outlines a path to end decades of conflict, it is a highly complicated agreement. Ambassador Gabriel points out the "chicken-and-egg challenge" at the heart of the conflict: Hezbollah refuses to disarm before an Israeli withdrawal, while Israel refuses to withdraw before Hezbollah is disarmed. This is further complicated by Iran's influence and the integration of broader US-Iran negotiations.
Despite these hurdles, Gabriel writes that the framework successfully affirms Lebanon's sovereignty, outlines full Israeli withdrawal over time, mandates the disarmament of Hezbollah by the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and opens the possibility for peaceful relations.
Key Takeaways from the Article:
- The Importance of "Pilot Zones": To bypass the stalemate of occupation, the agreement proposes immediate "pilot zones." Gabriel explains: "In these zones, Israeli forces will withdraw after removing Hezbollah fighters and infrastructure, and the Lebanese Armed Forces will take over and remain in place." Rapid success and reconstruction in these zones will strengthen the Lebanese government and weaken Hezbollah’s legitimacy.
- Israel's Obligations: Israel must strictly adhere to the ceasefire and stop the wholesale demolition of towns in southern Lebanon to ensure civilians can return. They must not abuse the agreement's self-defense clauses.
- Lebanon's Obligations: The Lebanese government and the LAF must demonstrate the will to fully implement their side of the agreement. This includes quickly taking over the pilot zones, establishing financial oversight for reconstruction aid, asserting full state sovereignty, and disarming Hezbollah.
- The Crucial Role of the US: The agreement will fail without active US leadership. The US must press Iran to cease proxy support for Hezbollah, convene regular diplomatic and military meetings between Lebanon and Israel, and provide verifiable support to the LAF.
As Ambassador Gabriel warns in the article: "As with all agreements in the Middle East, if implementation is slow, the agreement will fall apart." Success will require all three parties working quickly and in tandem.